Across the Board Losses

Lower to sharply lower applied to just about every market today as beans accelerated their rollover losses dragging corn down with it. Wheat had other negative fundamental input at Argentina’s record wheat harvest has them putting offering prices lower $20-$30 a metric tonne less than the closest competition, even Russia. The bigger news today was the shocking and scary turnaround losses in the US equity markets after great earning for stalwarts Walmart and Nvidia pushed early to trade to large gains, then the ugly reversal started after unemployment news came out that the job market was doing better than expected which will keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates again December. The massive equity reversal dragged stock sensitive markets like cattle reverse from decent gains to another day of sharp losses on fear of slowing holiday demand. Friday’s trade will closely watch all the factors mentioned and if any more sizable flash bean sales to China will be announced by the USDA.

News and Notes:

• US and SA weather forecasts remain non-threatening as the No Nina pattern has produced the best planting and early growing season SA in a decade.
• The daily December corn chart is on Page 2 and shows the continued slide from last week’s apparent seasonal high. Prices did find support at the 50-DMA (green line at $4.25 1/2) but made a new 4-week low as farmer hedging and stop loss selling continue to pressure corn as it follows the much weaker bean market. The $4.20-$4.25 range was traded for months, and it looks like that is where a comfort level will develop with December option expiration tomorrow and then December futures first notice day the Friday after Thanksgiving. The funds are building a larger, but not large net short position as demand news has been good but not great and world wheat prices are so low that wheat will be worked into feed rations for much better margins.
• Cattle markets continue to collapse as the charts and the developing supply and demand outlook turn more bearish after the record rally this summer and early fall.
• The flood of Chinese purchases that rallied the market since the trade deal has become a trickle as the daily reports are showing only modest totals, with today’s sale of 12 MBU. To meet the announced total of 360-400 MBU of bean purchases by year end, China will need to step up the pace to 13.5 MBU per day for the rest of the year. They have confirmed purchases of 50 MBU so far.
• Ag Secretary Rollins spoke on Wednesday on potential government payments saying an announcement should be made the first week of December. No totals or any other insight was offered.
• In the way too early 2026 US planted acreage estimate, S& P Global announced they have found through farmer survey that they expect 95 MA of corn and 84.5 MA of beans. The total of corn and beans would be the highest in years, but high input prices in corn will trim that total.

Sorry for the late release tonight but I was on a flight with no internet and some of the chattiest people sitting around me that I could tolerate. Unfortunately, the trends are now looking neutral to lower as last week’s post-trade deal excitement has hit the hard reality that China is not going to save the US bean market. Friday needs a spark to reclaim some of this week’s losses as next week’s choppy 3 ½ day trading Thanksgiving week will decrease volume with our markets closed on Thursday and half day Friday while the rest of the world conducts normal business.