April 17, 2025 Comment – Weekend Edition

The holiday-shortened week saw slow mixed trade on Thursday with only modest changes for the week. The news landscape is still sensitive to any trade news, but the extensions into July are producing early talks with key trading partners. US planting progress will be mixed into the end of the month with ECB slowed by an active weather pattern while the WCB remains dry. World weather is not a major factor currently but will become more important in the weeks ahead.

New and Notes:

• After a busy week of fieldwork and dry weather but several systems will move across the ECB and Delta over the next 10-days while the WCB remains stuck in a stubborn drought pattern. Brazil’s early safrinha pollination weather is not currently threatening while the Black Sea remains too dry/hot.
• The new crop charts are on Page 2 and show the improvement in each chart over the last several weeks, despite the tariff turmoil. The funds are only long a modest position in corn while holding a small, short in beans and a very large, short in wheat. December corn could try to get to the mid-February highs of $4.79 ¾ where sales should advance on any rally over $4.70. Thursday’s close was $4.66.
• The quarterly Cattle on Feed report was neutral but the lack of increased placements and on feed numbers staying relatively flat. Cash prices jumped back up to $208-$210 this week, indicating tight numbers available with demand remaining strong as the economy and employment market remain strong.
• There was no major trade news to end the week or over the weekend, as negotiations remain ongoing with the 90-day tariff extensions for everyone except China, progress will be slow compared to the frenetic start of the tariff/trade war.
• The weekly export sales report was again strong for corn (9-week high) with world demand showing up from Mexico and the EU. Bean and wheat sales were unimpressive with softening world cash prices for each. With the US Dollar falling to new 2-year lows and indicating further weakness, exports should continue to be solid as everything is now 10% cheaper than they were to start 2025.
• Weekly Changes: Corn -8 (Old Crop), +2 1/2 (New Crop), Beans -6 1/4 (OC) +7 (NC), Wheat -8, Crude +318, Diesel +870, Dow -1070, US Dollar -763, Cattle +728, Feeder Cattle +815, Hogs +382, Cotton -7, Milk +15 (17.37).

The markets continue to perform admirably in the face of the trade uncertainty with old and new crop prices pushing to levels where catch and new sales are suggested. With the energy markets looking like they have bottomed with hedges in place, support should be seen in higher gas prices. The next month is about trade negotiations and US planting progress and weather which will make keeping focus on a just a few major moving parts a welcome change during the busiest time of the year. Happy Easter!