Calm Before the Speech, and Maybe the Storm

A welcome two-sided quiet trade unfolded today with the grains closing mixed and little changed while beans were modestly higher on rumors of Chinese buying interest. A focal point of today’s trade was what the content of President Trump’s State of the Union speech tonight may have for agriculture, trade, tariffs, and the latest news on negotiations with Iran. Each of these topics will have either direct or indirect impacts on mid-week trade direction. The bean and grain industry is hoping for positive news on trade and tariffs while the cattle industry nervously waits on any signs that President Trump will again address the high cost of beef and address any new steps regarding opening the Mexican border or additional imports from South America. There are no dull days with this administration and tonight should give the trade plenty to trade.

News and Notes:

- Weather remains a neutral to bearish story across the world, especially in Brazil and Argentina as harvest and planting are rolling along in good conditions. The window for any meaningful crop loss in SA is closing quickly, so focus in the next 4-6-weeks will turn to Brazil’s safrinha crop development weather and US planting weather.

- The December daily corn chart is on Page 2 and shows this week’s bullish flurry that pushed prices back to and even slightly above the price the day of the very bearish USDA report on the 2025 crop. It is impressive that corn, wheat, and beans have all rallied in February,which is usually a very neutral to bearish time of the year. Seasonals are having less and less impact each year as increased production and ever-changing world political policy do not follow the old script from 10+ years ago. With Monday’s high as new resistance but significant technical moving average support underneath, the corn market has settled back into the very comfortable $4.55-$.70 range.

- Considerable confusion was caused after Sec Rollin’s announcement and press release on Friday about the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments. Early thoughts were that it was a new program (as had been rumored for months), but it was just an announcement about the existing program that was announced in late 2025. It is not clear (other than it is the USDA) why registration was re-opened for the FBA where registration was due last December. Apologies for any confusion this may have caused in the weekend comment when it was thought this was an additional program. If you had certified acres and signed up in December, you should be good. If you did not sign up in December, please go to the USDA site regarding Friday’s announcement.

- If you have cattle and want budget friendly(ish) ideas to set floors at these record prices in case cattle takes an ugly turn, please call us.

- Standing Sales Target for December 2026 corn was hit in yesterdays and today’s trade. This brings total sales to 40% with an average price of $4.70. Our new crop corn Sales Target has been bumped up to $4.85. The counter-seasonal early 2026 rallies have been used to advance sales, and some of you have asked about upside protection strategies. Because corn has been in a relatively tight range since the rebound from the bearish January report shocker, option premiums are historically cheap due to the lack of volatility. If you are interested in setting a floor or selling futures or cash and protecting any upside surprise, now is a great time to get an understanding of the risks, benefits, and costs. Please contact us to talk through the choices.

There will be no daily comment tomorrow as I have a busy travel schedule to the Commodity Classic and then an afternoon of meetings. If you are going to San Antonio, please stop by the Helena booth through Friday to talk markets or discuss the best happy hours on the Riverwalk. I look forward to seeing some of you there. Pay attention to any rallies that may be sparked by tonight’s speech and continue to reward the strong and mostly unexpected February rallies.