Corn Finishes Week With Gains While Beans and Wheat Finish Lower

A lack of news kept both the volume and volatility to a minimum to end the week but another 5 MBU bean sale to China was announced this morning but offered no spark to force a rally. Chinese bean buying has been solid of late, and they have now purchased over half of the 440 MBU promised in the trade deal in several different ways but has yet to impress the bean market that fell to new 2-month lows. The Christmas shortened week next week will further inhibit participation, so a quiet grinding trade is expected in all three markets for the next several sessions. South American weather remains non-threatening as the forecasts for the critical window of the first 6-weeks of the year show no developing stress. Big world crops, excessive world stocks, and flat world demand remain the anchors for the markets.

News and Notes:

• The SA weather outlook into the end of the year is non-threatening with plenty of rain in the major production regions of both Brazil and Argentina. Harvest will start in about 3-weeks for the earliest planted beans in N Brazil as the major reproduction phases for the remaining crops will start with normal temperatures and plenty of sub-soil moisture. Crop ratings remain high with only isolated pockets of potential yield loss.
• A new mix of charts is on Page 2 and shows the weekly chart for Dec ’26 corn, the daily chart for November ’26 beans, and the daily chart for July wheat. It is clear that the weekly corn chart was able to fall under major technical support of the 20, 50 and 100 DMAs before putting in enough of a rally to close the week over the moving averages. Corn, on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts is stuck in a trading range that will take major news to break away from. The daily charts for new crop beans and wheat show the brutal bear trends brought on by world oversupply and falling cash markets. The CFTC will be caught up next week so the trade will know exactly where the funds are positioned.
• The excessive world supply of crude oil and diesel has not been helpful for corn and beans and the daily diesel chart for the February contract shows the steep 46-cent decline in price just over the last 2-weeks as OPEC+ is increasing daily production while US production continues to ramp up. While Friday’s close was the lowest since early June, the fundamental picture does not merit hedging most of your 2026 usage needs, but deciding to buy some on a further break is recommended.
• Friday’s December Cattle on Feed report confirmed the historic tightness of cattle in the US with November’s placement rate slightly lower than expected while the feedlot inventory was 51,000 under the trade estimate. Nearby cattle futures have rallied over $25 since late November and this report will keep support under the market unless news comes out of Washington regarding opening eh Mexican border for imports or additional concessions for imports from SA.
• Weekly Changes: Corn +3 (March ‘26), unchanged (Dec ‘26), Beans -27 1/2 (Jan ‘26), -20 1/2 (Nov ‘26), Wheat – 14 (July ’26), Crude -78, Diesel -762, Dow -9, US Dollar +228, Cattle +125, Feeder Cattle +650, Hogs -3, Cotton unchanged, Milk -31 (15.61).

The grain and soy markets have taken on a holiday trading posture with decreasing volume and ranges which should continue into the end of the year unless some impressive Chinese demand news pops up. The South American weather forecasts have been so consistent and non-threatening that it is hard to see any abrupt change that will disrupt the quiet trade in the next week. Christmas week will be chopped up with one-half day on Wednesday, a full closure on Thursday followed by full day of trade on Friday, which will keep participation limited. Sunday night opening calls are mixed to slightly lower as no major market moving news was reported. Have a great Sunday.