- Corn 4 to 4 ½ higher
- Soybeans 4 ¾ to 5 ½ higher
- Wheat 14 ¾ to 15 ¼ higher
- Basis Flat
- Live Cattle 50 higher (249.40)
- Dow Jones 110 higher (49,807)
- Crude Oil 279 higher (98.19)
- Feeder Cattle 103 higher (368.40)
President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest counter-offer for a complete ceasefire set the tone for all raw material markets to start the week as crude oil was solidly higher with WTI again trading through $100 a barrel in the overnight session. Corn, beans, and wheat all followed crude higher as has been the trend while the US equity markets continue to look past the closure of the Straits and high gas prices to rally to new all-time highs. Tuesday’s extra wrinkle will be the May USDA monthly update to give the trade an updated baseline on supply and demand all across the globe. Unless there are some shocking adjustments, the USDA report will be quickly traded into the latest developments from Iran.
News and Notes:
- Although the W Plains wheat crop needs some rain, there are no other issues in the US or SA as normal temperatures and precipitation are forecast. This afternoon’s planting progress report will show beans approaching 60% planted while corn moved past 50% over the weekend. A normal seasonal is for prices to fade once the crop is 50% planted without a weather problem, but since this year is not normal, it will not make much of an impact.
- The lengthy list of pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report is on Page 2 and shows the multiple columns that the USDA will update from early 2026 US yields to the latest SA yield estimates and everything in between. The yield estimates will be closely watched as sharply higher fertilizer inputs since the February Ag Outlook release will likely encourage to cut the USDA’s corn yield estimates. The USDA/WASDE and SA private and public estimates have shown the USDA noticeably under other estimates, in what is expected by all to be record production.
- The much-anticipated trade meeting with China will be unusually well attended by non-government officials as the Presidents of Tesla, Apple, Boeing, and others are just a few of the high-profile US company leaders travelling with the trade team. China is expected to place orders for aircraft from Boeing and other direct trade deals are expected to be announced, but for now, no additional Chinese purchases of US ag products have been announced or rumored.
- The Wheat Crop Quality Tour will also start this week, and it has proven a dependable guide for final yield estimates. The crop ratings are so bad, and the W Plains crop so dry; low yields have been slowly priced into the market over the past month.
This will be an interesting week as Iran news will be joined by big USDA numbers and the possibility that some bullish trade deals will be announced from the US/China trade meeting. The biggest factor of these three will be how crude reacts to developments in Iran, as it has been the major leg of support for corn and beans for over 2-months. Although the markets remain very volatile with larger than average daily volume, the news does not lend itself to length explanations, which has shortened the daily commentary. The USDA report will be out at 11 am central on Tuesday, and we will put out an overview of the updates and the other news of the morning.
Sales Targets
Corn
Beans
Wheat
- 2025 Crop Finished Finished Finished
- 100% Sold at $4.48 Avg 100% Sold at $10.67 100% Sold at $6.24 Avg
- 2026 Crop On Hold - Dec ‘26 On Hold – Nov ‘26 15% at $6.60– July ‘26
- 60% Sold at $4.78 50% Sold at $11.05 50% Sold at $6.13
- Current Price $4.98 $11.95 $6.34
- 2027 Crop 10% at $5.15 - Dec ‘27 On Hold – Nov ‘27 25% at $7.15– July ‘27
- No Sales Yet 10% Sold at $11.50 No Sales Yet
- Current Price $5.09 $11.49 $6.96
%’s are total of expected yields. Bold Prices are Updated Sales Targets. * price includes trading
Today’s Market Closes — Rounded to the Nearest Cent
Corn
- July $4.75
- September $4.82
- December $4.98
- March $5.12
Beans
- July $12.13
- September $11.90
- November $11.95
- January $12.06
Wheat
- July $6.34
- September $6.49
- December $6.70
- March $6.88
Other Closes
- June Diesel 3.9667 +673
- Dec Cotton 87.40 +194
- Cash Cattle $260 Offer
- Lean Hogs 90.88 unch
Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. No market data or other information is warranted by Reliance Capital Markets II LLC as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC, or their respective subsidiaries, affiliates, officers or employees. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Strategic Trading Advisors is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets ll LLC.
About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.
About Brady Lawrence
Brady Lawrence is an Agriculture Market Specialist and Financial Advisor that focuses on commodities markets, futures and options brokerage, and helping individuals and families plan for retirement and their financial futures. Brady joined Jody at Strategic Trading Advisors in 2018 after college and supports the market research and brokerage sides of the business.