Crude Surges Again, but Are Grain Markets Starting to Tune It Out?

Choppiness prevailed in Thursday’s end of week trade as the trade positioned on the latest Iran news and the added uncertainty of the 3-day Easter weekend. Crude oil was sharply higher to end the shortened week but did not pull the grains and soy markets along like it had been the first weeks of the war, as President Trump’s national address on Wednesday night did not offer any clear path or plan for an end to the war or a re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Caution and confusion remain key parts of price discovery as last Monday’s USDA planting estimates showed more corn acres than expected but with a survey window before the war started, and fertilizer prices skyrocketed. The markets will re-open on Sunday night with crude and diesel prices sitting at post-Covid highs with any weekend diplomatic or military news determining early week price direction.

News and Notes:

- The central Corn Belt of the Big I states received some welcome pre-planting rain over the last 3-5 days to help areas that saw their driest winter in years. US weather remains spring consistent with highly variable prices, but a general non-threatening outlook into mid-April. The early summer weather pattern features a likely transition from a neutral El Nino to a weak El Nino by pollination. This pattern usually produces trendline + yields. The wheat crop in the S Plains still needs rain. SA weather remains a non-issue as Brazil’s winter corn crop is going through early development in good conditions and Argentina’s harvest is approaching 25% complete with sharply higher yields than last year’s drought impacted crops.

- The new crop corn and bean charts are on Page 2 and show corn’s weakness after the Prospective Planting report while beans remain neutral to bullish on the strength of crude oil and new EPA bio-fuel mandates pulling bean oil higher. The June diesel chart shows the daily volatility of the markets around each new development in Iran and shows the new contract high and new 3 ½ year weekly closing high. The last chart is the Dow Jones Industrial average, and it is clear that equity investors are looking at the current spike in oil prices, a more temporary problem pushing prices higher for the first week since the war started. One key indicator in these fast-moving markets is becoming the 20-DMA (red line) that is following the trade higher or lower.

- Cattle rallied again last week with big rallies to end the week on higher cash trade. The record high prices remain a concern if gas prices stay high for longer as consumer discretionary income is stretched at the pump. Rumors last week were that the Mexican border could reopen soon but for processed beef imports, not for live or feeder cattle. With the weather warming and the grilling season arriving, beef demand at the retail level will closely influence summer price trends.

- Please take a few minutes to listen to our latest podcast on Helena’s FieldLink where fertilizer costs and the markets are discussed as the war continues in Iran.

- Weekly Changes: - 9 3/4 (May ‘26), - 9 (Dec ‘26), Beans + 4 1/4 (May ‘26), + 10 (Nov ‘26), Wheat – 6 1/2 (July ’26), Crude +178, Diesel + 1562, Dow + 1205, US Dollar - 67, Cattle + 770, Feeder Cattle + 823, Hogs - 80, Cotton + 96, Milk + 51 (17.73).

The fog of war continues to sit over all markets as this week’s hope for clarity from the White House proved fruitless. With more questions than answers in the war and the short and long-term impact of higher gas prices all summer, finding fair value for the grains and soy markets will be more challenging than normal but good planting weather almost always leads top more corn acres. The hook in that theory is just how many farmers do not have sufficient fertilizer to use a full fertility program now demanded to outyield low prices. If our markets begin to look past the war and crude oil prices begin to moderate or fall, the concern of increased corn acres of 96 MA + and good growing season weather will take over price discovery. While there are too many crosscurrents to analyze in the short-term, the plan to continue to sell rallies is the best way to go. We hope everyone has a blessed Easter weekend.