Grain Markets Consolidate as Weather Cools and Export Pace Slows

Turnaround Tuesday saw a modestly lower trade for corn and beans on a consistently cooler US forecast, and no daily flash export sales announcements had the markets on the defensive after Monday’s early rallies and poor closes. Wheat moved higher on further war related shipping disruptions through several key Russian ports which helped pull corn off the lows along with end user demand. Searing temperatures will still be present until late week over the WCB and N Plains, but the heat dome is expected to pull back west rather than move east as the weekend forecasts showed. Other news was limited, but the four daily updated forecasts will continue to drive the biggest part of daily price movement.

News and Notes:

• The excessive heat this week is forecast to pull back west this weekend, but the biggest part of the Corn Belt will remain mostly dry into late month. The effect of this week’s heat will be important to watch in all regions and next week’s crop ratings will be interesting to watch. European crops are nearing the point of no return and this week’s cool down and modest chance of showers will only buy them a little more time if the heat returns.
• The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the new higher range since the sharply higher breakout coming back from the 4th. The chart looks great as despite the cooler forecasts, beans are still only a few cents from last Monday’s close. The funds remain long over 350 MBU (mostly unchanged over the last week) on tight bean oil reserves and growing momentum around additional Chinese demand. The current forecast impacts beans but not as much as corn, and the overbought condition can be solved with several days of choppy flat trade, which would set up a great looking chart heading into the first of the more reliable early August forecasts in 2-weeks. $12 will remain important for both farmer hedging and as a psychological barrier, but a few more solid days of Chinese daily flash sales would probably accomplish a run back toward the contract high of $12.14.
• The four-day run of morning bean sales announcements to China ended today. China still has plenty of time to fulfill their purchase goals (25 MMTs = 917 MBU) from the May trade deal, but a weekly pace of 38 MBU needs to be hit to reach that goal for the rest of 2026.
• The team at Helena’s FieldLink podcastput together an all-star cast to discuss in-season fungicide application and how to maximize your profitability. My recent market update follows their panel discussion.
• Crude oil was sharply higher in overnight trade to push back over $80 a barrel with diesel futures closing over $4 a gallon and a new contract high. Diesel has rallied $1 a gallon in the last month on Straits news and increasing world shortages, especially in Russia. High diesel prices remain a good leg of support for bean oil in particular and the bean market in general.
• The cattle markets have been pummeled for the last 2 1/2 weeks with feeders off $28 and live cattle futures on a 13-session losing streak and now $19 off the highs and down $15 in just the last four sessions. Both closed today at the last level of major technical support.

Today was not a great day, but it was not a bad day either. Consolidation and modest breaks are a good sign for any healthy early bull market and in between the cooler forecast and no Chinese purchases, the markets held up very well. Corn cannot get through significant overhead technical resistance while beans are doing a good job consolidating well above their breakout over all major technical moving average resistance. It will take several successive hot/dry forecasts to force a larger breakout, but a steady drum beat of great demand for both the grains and soy complex would provide an important bullish influence. Some Sales Target updates will be given in the days ahead, but for now with sales totals in line with conditions and an option re-ownership strategy executed at lower levels, the recommended marketing plan is in good shape as we hit mid-July.