Grain Markets Ignore Iran Chaos as Traders Wait on China

A second consecutive quiet day of trade in corn, beans, and wheat was seen despite the massive volatility in the world equity and energy markets. The bean and grain traders are either too exhausted or too broke after last week’s meltdown to get very interested in accelerating or reversing those losses. Outside news focused on Iran where a US patrol helicopter was shot down (thankfully no casualties) by Iran, which set off a flurry of news, rumors and announcements that sent markets wildly swinging in both directions through the day. The grain and soy markets have been able to separate themselves from the daily news from Iran as they are waiting on any positive trade movements in China that could quickly claw back some of the recent losses.

News and Notes:

- It is rare to say in mid-June that the majority of the US Corn Belt is getting almost too much rain, but that has been the pattern since April and is forecast to continue for at least another 2-weeks. With the extra water, the new problem is that Midwest temperatures will be 8-10 below normal for the next 10-days. SA weather has been conducive for Brazil’s early harvest and late crop development.

- The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the slippery slope that new crop prices continue to slip down. Although Nov beans are still 77-cents above the 2026 lows, they have fallen 85-cents below the 2026 highs, but 90-cents above the Nov ’25 beans on June 9, 2025. The funds were flat in today’s trade but are still long 475 MBU, which is 4 times as much as they are in corn, which is very rare when you have comfortable world supplies of both. The funds still think China is going to explode as a buyer at some point this year. The technical support of the Mar low (dotted blue line) and the 200-DMA (black line) is from $11.13 ½ to $11.18, which is well below today’s close.

- This morning’s USDA daily export report had a corn sale to Unknown. It would be great to see a streak of 5-7 days of flash sales to Unknown, but it is unlikely to say China until they drop their 10% tariff on imported US bushels.

- Feeder and live cattle futures had another wild day with positive closes in both to push back to the upper range of the last week. Another thing to watch in the cattle market is the slow improvement over last year in pasture conditions. If rains fall in the S Plains and SW, ranchers will be thinking about adding feeders, but another summer drought will force more cattle to feed lots or packers. Add these wrinkles to screwworm and the cattle market volatility will probably continue like this all summer.

- The state-by-state weekly crop conditions had some interesting information which probably added more pressure than support for today’s markets. The ones that jumped out me was Iowa’s corn rating at 84% up 12%, while their bean crop rating was an equally impressive 80% G/e and up another 1%. The ECB and Ohio Valley states that were soaked in April and early May are not looking great currently with Ohio corn at 45% and beans at 47%, Indiana at 67% and 55%, while Illinois at 67% and 64% has work to do. Rain has been a regular feature over the last week, but the ECB crops need sun and heat. The WCB trouble spot I see is Nebraska with just 58% G/E in corn, but beans are 63%. The WCB needs regular rains to push yield.

The daily announcement of “Peace is days away” has been traded for the last month but no agreement or lasting cease fire has been seen. The sharp rally in crude oil at the start of the war was a big factor in supporting soy and grain prices, but it is largely being ignored now as prices have crept lower and broke $86 a barrel in today’s early trade. While I hope you are seeing relief at the pump and lower fertilizer prices, all of the problems in Iran and a complete opening of the Straits are the only way to have confidence in a return to the winter price levels. Patience is all you can have now, but if you are comfortably sold at (what are now) higher levels, it might a good time to look at some call options (courage calls) if the Super El Nino negatively impacts late season US summer growing conditions and China finally makes a move to buy more US corn and beans. We have a few ideas.