Grains Retreat as Crude Reverses, but Soybeans Show Surprising Strength

Lower grains and a resilient bean complex were the highlights to end April as crude oil had a sharp reversal to finish lower after making new contract highs. Mostly unchanged weather forecasts and no major news on the Straits or Iran, kept recent volatility in check for the most part. Friday’s trade should feature routine Friday positioning but first of the month fund action should influence the markets as the general investing community is talking more about hedging inflation risks by owning raw materials, which could add additional new month buying than would be expected during a fast-planting window.

News and Notes:

- Although the Midwest will take the drying forecast for early May, a widespread warm up is not forecast for another 10-days. Everywhere except the Plains is well watered, so warmth will be the biggest factor moving forward. Many parts of the WCB will see below freezing overnight temperatures this weekend. Brazil’s weather is not perfect as rain is needed heading into pollination.

- New crop beans continue to defy most predictions and traded impressively again today. After a sharp pullback from overnight new contract highs when crude oil pulled back, prices gradually clawed back to finish higher on the day. The daily chart of the November contract shows the steady strength since the Xi/Trump trade meeting was postponed. The funds are net long over 1 million bushels in each corn and beans; it appears as a raw material inflation hedge, not because of bullish fundamental pictures.

- Please check the updated Sales Targets on Page 2 as all year's for corn, beans and wheat have been updated. I am not freaking out and looking at this week’s action as a long-term top since the 2026 rallies have been rewarded along the way. The trade needs to keep both war, energy, and fertilizer application risk premium in the markets. If you need to make some catch up sales, please make sure your orders are in with your buyers as the overnight and day-session volatility will remain high.

- There is a lot of ag related wrangling going on in Washington this week as both Houses try to iron out two key bills. The first is a final committee vote on the long overdue farm bill is expected today, but it was announced last night that the year-round E-15 sales amendment was dropped after too much opposition from representatives in small refiner heavy states and districts. The second bill is called “Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act,” and it is trying to get all tariffs and fees removed from phosphate imports from Morocco who mines almost 70%% of the world’s phosphate. It is confusing that there are any fees and tariffs on fertilizer imports at all considering so little fertilizer is mined or manufactured in the US.

- The weekly export report again showed impressive demand for corn while the wheat and bean complex numbers were just in-line with estimates that have been creeping lower in recent weeks. The biggest factor moving forward on demand is that the recent rallies have pushed US bushels well above world prices at a time where SA and Russian harvests have refilled the world pipeline.

- Key market movements today were December corn making a new high for the move to $4.99 ¾ but the heavy farmer hedging and lack of committed fund buyers to allow prices to push through the key psychological resistance at $5. The other is the sharp loss in wheat after Wednesday’s key technical reversal, July ’26 wheat has lost over 30 cents from Wednesday’s high. The most bullish crop price movement lately has been in cotton with December cotton prices up 20% in 2026 and over 80 cents for the first time in 2 years.

All things considered, the bean complex had an impressive day while corn and wheat were due for a setback after corn's 9-day winning streak. With crude reversing $7 + from new rally highs and closing solidly lower, the higher bean oil trade defied the recent trend of following energy prices. With another active weekend of planting ahead for a crop already ahead of schedule, both corn and beans should be past 50% planted in another week. Heading into the weekend, Friday’s trade should see more defensive positioning as President Trump has shown the tendency to make big announcements when the markets are closed for weekend. Please look at the updated Sales Targets and be safe in the field.