June Begins With a Power Shift: Are Weather and Acres Replacing Crude Oil as Market Drivers?

After promising announcements from President Trump on peace talks with Iran on Friday, the week ended with sizable losses as crude oil fell to its lowest weekly close in six weeks. Weekend developments did not confirm any progress in either a peace deal or a reopening of the Stratis as all involved parties in the Middle East have different thoughts on what the region should look like moving forward. As the calendar turns to June and more emphasis is placed on US crop size, there will be a wider list of topics that could take over the daily news flow to direct price movement as price discovery moves toward the always landscape shaping June 30th planted acreage numbers and updated supply and demand balance sheets.

News and Notes:

- A while the US weather is mostly non-threatening after solid (if not too much) rain over the last 10 days for most of the Corn Belt. Areas to focus on are China’s excessive rainy pattern and the record heat and drought in Europe. US planting is int eh wrap up stage and state by state initial G/E crop ratings should be strong for corn and beans, while the wheat crop will continue to limp toward harvest.

- The daily grain and crude oil charts on Page 2 took a bearish turn last week with all three falling below the 50-DMA (green line) as the extremely large net long fund positions that were built as an inflation trade for the spring are being unwound as crude oil supplies potentially will normalize when the Stratis reopen. Beans are the only chart that improved last week as strong demand for beans oil from China and the US has supported beans to stay over the 20-DMA (red line) since mid-March. All four markets have corrected the extremely overbought conditions from early May, so the funds are on the sideline with smaller positions waiting for the right signal if a US or world weather scare develops. The funds have sold nearly 800 MBU combined of corn and wheat last week.

- The subtle and quiet moves that China could make next week to clear the path for additional US grain and soy purchases are expected to start next week with a lowering of certain tariffs and import taxes on US imports. China did buy Argentine corn last week, but this is a normal seasonal purchase as Argentina’s harvest nears completion.

- Thanks to Helena Agri for making the FieldLink podcast available. Please listen the latest update.

- The USDA announced a new outbreak of Mexican Screwworm just 31 miles from the southern Texas border late Friday. Disease pressure in cattle always seems to get worse during the US summer as temperatures rise. Expect cattle markets to start the week with a higher trade.

- Weekly Changes: Corn – 16 1/2 (July ‘26), - 11 1/2 (Dec ‘26), Beans – 9 3/4 (July ‘26), + 2 1/4 (Nov ‘26), Wheat - 35 3/4 (July ’26), Crude - 924, Diesel - 2864, Dow + 415, US Dollar - 331, Cattle - 105, Feeder Cattle - 142, Hogs + 10, Cotton + 26, Milk - 1 (16.91).

A relatively quiet weekend has unfolded with limited news of any breakthrough or agreements with Iran to extend the ceasefire and open the Straits. A portion of Friday’s grain losses and last week’s significant losses in crude oil and diesel are expected to be clawed back on the Sunday night open as Friday’s overly optimistic statements from President Trump about a deal were mostly refuted by Iran over the weekend. Developments in Iran will direct the  price of crude oil which will direct the price of the grains and soy as June starts. Other important fundamental factors of US weather and early crop health will become more important as June starts on Monday, as well as Chinese import news. Opening calls are modestly higher tonight, have a great Sunday.