Losses in Grains to Close Out the Year

Bean prices were the downside leader in today’s New Years Eve trade as the USDA did not announce any additional daily flash export sales and the catch-up weekly export report from December 18^thwas not enough to offset the disappointment of the demand bulls. Corn traded at unchanged to slightly higher most of the day while wheat continued the long-term bearish trend as world wheat prices continue to decline. Markets will be closed until the regular opening time of 8:30 A central on Friday, with a quick one full of trade into the weekend.

News and Notes:

• Argentine forecasts remain consistent that welcome rain will return next weekend to end the hot/dry somewhat stressful 2-week run. Brazil’s weather remains non-threatening and is an obvious part of why old and new crop beans remain under pressure and made new lows again today as an 8 BBU total bean crop is expected from SA. The Midwest is back in a warming weather pattern through next week with the far WCB seeing additional soil moisture loss.
• The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the depressing technical pattern after last week’s failure to close over the 100 DMA (blue line) and today’s downward assault on the 200 DMA (black) at $10.63 ¾. Today’s low was $10.63 ½ and closed at $10.64 ¼ so the next few days of trade will be critical if the 200-DMA holds like it has since early May. Unfortunately, the March daily bean, bean meal and bean oil charts have already broken through all moving average support, so the general technical pattern in the soy complex is very bearish.
• The USDA was rumored to be releasing the last of the government shutdown delayed weekly reports this week, but did as far the Dec 18^threport, so there is only one remaining. It was also hoped the EPA would  release the updated mandates for refinery exemptions to give the renewable energy industry some guidance for 2026 and beyond. Maybe next week.
• US cattle futures continue to drive higher with Feb live making new 2-month highs at $232.45 with an open chart gap up to $233.43 the next target. Tight US supplies and a Brazilian beef herd that contracted 5% in 2025, have reversed the sharp losses after President Trump said he was taking aim at lowering beef prices in late October with Brazilian cattle imports. There has been no specific news on re-opening the Mexican border for feeder cattle imports since the closure due to the screwworm virus outbreak this summer.
• Thanks for the correspondence email about how the paperwork and communication with the FSA offices and getting the Farmer Assistance Checks is going. While I use multiple sources for research and information, farmer feedback is always my most reliable source.

Turning the calendar to a new year is more symbolic of getting older and the unstoppable passage of time, but we will look back at 2025 to find both the positive and negative, both personally and professionally. While we all wish prices were higher and profit margins larger, more record crops in every major production country will probably be the lead story for 2025 ag and the reason that prices and margins are not in ideal positions. With oversupply and flat world demand, the outlook does not look to change anytime early in 2026, as the ability of the world’s farm community to produce more and more yield from every acre even with sometimes inconsistent weather is both a blessing and a curse. I am personally grateful for everyone’s support through the 29-years I have been writing this comment, and my family wishes you and your family a safe and blessed 2026. Happy New Year!