Markets End the Week on Edge as War Uncertainty Clouds Direction

Grain, soy, and equity prices fell to end the week with several equity indexes closing under long-term support while crude oil prices actually settled slightly lower for the week. Uncertainty and unpredictability continue to be the main features of every market as progress on ending the war with Iran quickly fade with each passing day. Predicting how and when the war will end and the Straits will re-open is the current game, but if a surprise diplomatic end is announced, expect an ugly reversal in every market with energies and ag falling with equity markets rebounding sharply. Nervous volatility will be the pattern to start the week.

News and Notes:

- The season long pattern of plenty of moisture and non-threatening temperatures continue for Brazil and Argentina with the finish of the growing season in S Brazil and N Argentina in great shape while the end of N Brazil’s bean harvest and safrinha corn planting are also seeing great weather. There is no world weather issue, and the US looks to be warming now that spring has officially arrived. Planting in the southern US is well underway.

-There are four daily charts starting on Page 2 for Dec corn, Nov beans, May diesel, and the June Dow Jones stock index. All of the charts show the volatile daily trade of the last 2-weeks with corn and beans following crude while all equity markets have been dramatically weaker on all the concerns stemming from the war. The funds added to their 1.1 BBU + corn position while trimming their overall bean complex positions slightly. The current inverse relationship of crude and diesel to the equity markets will hopefully see energy prices fall and equity markets rally.

- Old crop beans had their largest losing week since May 2025 as the postponement of the trade meeting with China in Beijing pushed the Chinese bean buying bulls out of the market as it will be at least a month before the US and China meet. There is also concern that disagreements about the war could postpone the meeting indefinitely.

-Weekend events were mixed on diplomatic progress towards a cease fire and/or a re-opening of the Stratis of Hormuz as each new threat by the White House has only pushed Iran to say their retaliation would escalate with new US bombing. Actions speak louder than words in world diplomacy, but the end of the war and a re-opening of the Straits do not look probable this week.

- Please take a few minutes to listen to the latest Helena’s FieldlInk podcast we recorded last week with insight on weed management and my thoughts on the developments in the war and how they could affect the ag markets.

-Weekly Changes: Corn – 1 3/4 (May ‘26), - 3/4 (Dec ‘26), Beans - 64 (May ‘26), - 20 1/2 (Nov ‘26), Wheat – 17 1/4 (July ’26), Crude - 48, Diesel +5835, Dow -993, US Dollar - 648, Cattle + 360, Feeder Cattle + 827, Hogs -217, Cotton +163, Milk + 58 (17.24).

This is more of for what it’s worth paragraph, but one well followed ag market analyst (Trader PhD) and one major bank (Bank of America) both think a farming income boom is on the horizon as world fertilizer availability will hurt yields for the next several crop cycles, and potentially well beyond. Both of their thesis revolves around a protracted conflict in Iran that keeps the Straits of Hormuz closed or partially closed into the fall or longer and the massive disruption to nitrogen and fertilizer availability and cost. Their price estimates are similar with corn and wheat potentially moving another 20%+ higher ($1.00 - $1.30). Late season US fertilizer applications on corn and top dressing of wheat would immediately be impacted while South America’s entire fertilizer applications this fall could be much diminished. While there are some obvious holes in their outlook, the point is that the longer the war lasts, the bigger ripples the world ag markets will see. There was no major re-opening or cease fire news so far this weekend, so opening calls are mixed with a higher lean. Everything follows crude oil. Have a good Sunday.