Markets Whipsaw on Ceasefire Hopes as Oil Collapse Sparks Reversal

President Trump set the tone for the day during a television interview this morning on CNBC where he announced a productive weekend of talks with Iran’s remaining leadership that lead to a 5-day halt on last week’s US threats to aggressively bomb the Iranian electrical grid if the Stratis were not re-opened. In the next several minutes after the announcement crude oil fell over $12 a barrel, the Dow rallied over 1100-points while December corn fell 15-cents as the markets quickly reacted to the potential sudden change of world position. Over the course of the day, Iranian government sources contradicted President Trump’s statement which only added to the volatility and uncertainty. Confirmation of the productive talks or a potential for a re-engagement of the bombing will decide if today’s volatile turns are setting up a reversal in the coming weeks.

News and Notes:

• World weather remains a non-factor in price determination as SA is in great shape while the US appears to be heading to normal to above temperatures for the next 2-weeks.
• The daily May diesel chart is on Page 2 and shows today’s wipeout after President Trump’s morning announcement that substantive talks occurred over the weekend between Iran and the United States which lead to a 5-day halt on the US escalating their attacks on Iranian power infrastructure. The nearly 50-cent a gallon losses wiped out last week’s gains but did not do any serious damage to the chart as all major moving average support remains well below today’s close. On a technical basis, the 20-DMA at $3.30 (red line) is the first level of support if this correction continues without a definitive cease fire in place and the Straits of Hormuz fully re-opened for safe passage.
• Please take a few minutes to listen to the latest Helena’s FieldlInk podcast we recorded last week with insight on weed management and my thoughts on the developments in the war and how they could affect the ag markets.
• Over the weekend the 2027 markets were added to the Sales Target table to start the process of looking ahead to see where opportunities may be for future sales. With November ’27 beans trading over $11, that is an interesting price level to entertain considering Brazil’s continuing expansion in world bean production and export market share.
• Fertilizer prices will be the biggest non-weather wildcard in determining US planted acreage in the months ahead. Shortages and high prices are already a concern but are unlikely to show up in the March 31^st Planted Acreage report. Private estimates continue to come in between 94-95 MA of corn and 84-85 MA of beans.

It seemed inevitable that this day was coming and the staging and bravado of President Trump to announce it on television and through his Truth Social app highlights that major policy announcements no longer come through a scheduled press conference. Over the weekend one of my News and Notes points referred to the markets strongly signaling to this administration that they wanted the war over, or at least some news on a plan. With the US equity indexes having fallen sharply and gas prices rising to near 3-year highs, President Trump and his team are trying to find a way to keep inflation and a world economy heading into a recession from keeping the Republican party from retaining the House and potentially the Senate in the mid-term elections. There is a long way to go into re-opening the Straits and getting a stable government set up in Iran, so expect continued volatility and if no progress is made by the end of the week, another wild day of trade next Sunday and Monday.