No News, No Rally: Markets Brace for Make-or-Break Iran Deadline

Nervous trade throughout the day as no breakthrough news was announced on ceasefire negotiations saw corn and beans separate themselves from rising crude prices. Wheat was able to finish with fractional gains with the equity markets lower as all attention was on updates from negotiations with Iran. Despite the world and market turmoil on-farm activity, harvest in Argentina continues to move along quickly while US planting moves north under favorable conditions which reinforces that the outside noise will affect us, but there is still plenty of work to do. Progress or setbacks in the negotiations determine market direction the rest of the week starting in tonight’s trade.

News and Notes:

- A seasonally warm outlook for US planting is forecast for the next 10 days while normal rain will help but not cause any meaningful delays. World weather remains a non-issue.

- The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the steady walk along the 20-DMA (red line)  over the past 13 trading sessions. With the funds holding a net long position of over 1.1 BBU (total world stocks 4.6 BBU) the market will be very sensitive to a cease fire agreement. Even if the war moves to the next phase and crude adds another 10-15%, it will be hard to find a large enough buyer group to push prices significantly higher to add to the $1.50 2026 rally. One other important technical note is that both Dec corn ($4.98 ½) and Nov beans ($11.74 ¼) have not made new contract highs in almost a month.

- Progress reports on negotiations with Iran were mixed through the day but it appears that no news is bad news. The White House’s rack record during this conflict has been to back off of the worst of the threats, but at some point, there will be a point of no return for one or both sides. At this point, Iran has nothing to lose while this administration may have had its bluff tested for the last time. While the world may indeed be a safer place with Iran not having nuclear potential, but it sure feels more dangerous in the short-term.

- The USDA’s initial crop progress report was released on Monday with US wheat at 35% G/E (pretty average) with 3% of the US corn crop planted. The Delta and SW are moving quickly in generally good conditions with planting quickly moving north as insurance first plant dates are hit.

The overnight session has the opportunity to move sharply in either direction as trade will open when the cease-fire agreement deadline hits. A sharp increase in bombing and destruction in Iran could lead to a longer conflict with more US personnel involved which will  drive the energy markets. If the Straits re-open, the downward pressure on energy and upward euphoria in equities will be enormous, and unfortunately the opposite reactions will be seen if no agreement is reached. It is impossible to predict anything in any market currently and everyone will be in reaction mode as the time for pro-active positioning is ending.