- Corn 1 to 2 lower
- Soybeans 1 to 4 higher
- Wheat 4 to 5 higher
- Basis Flat/Higher
- Live Cattle 300 lower (215.00)
- Dow Jones 1100 lower (52,420)
- Crude Oil 150 higher (89.50)
- Feeder Cattle 500 lower (320.73)
The grain and soy markets are trading on both sides of unchanged and are little changed so far today. The weekly export report was solid, but China was not mentioned in the daily sales report. The best news for our markets is confirmation from Chinese leadership that they fully expect to keep a great relationship with President Trump and continue work toward the board of trade concept between China and the US. Chinese trade officials intend to honor their pledges to finish buying 25 MMT of US beans and another $17 billion in US ag products. The biggest negotiation point that has not been completed is the 30 x 30 proposal where China will buy $30 billion in US ag products if the US drops $30 billion in current tariffs against many Chinese imported products. If the 30 x 30 concept is approved in ongoing meetings, it would bring Chinese purchases back to the goals of the Phase 1 trade deal. This is the type of confirmed long-term bullish demand news the bulls need.
After Wednesday’s massive post-election equity market rallies, today got ugly quickly as several of the indexes lost more than they gained as investors struggle with how the new Democratic controlled Congress will deal with data centers and potential AI governance. Energies have also reversed modestly and are higher this morning. If you need to top off your tanks and your local prices have followed the 70-cent diesel futures break of the last 2-weeks, please buy fuel. President Trump does not need Congressional approval to continue the war against Iran, but peace negotiations between the two are still scheduled for next week. Russia/Ukraine are also working toward more peace talks, but President Putin has given no indication he is ready to give concessions.
The markets have been in depressing doldrums for months and may stay that way unless Tuesday’s USDA report unexpectedly cuts US yields. Demand remains great, but adding 500 MBU of corn and 100 MBU of beans on ending stocks will take while to work through. Basis levels and market carry are implying that the pipeline has plenty of available bushels.
This will be today’s only comment, but we will put out a full market overview over the weekend.
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About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.
About Brady Lawrence
Brady Lawrence is an Agriculture Market Specialist and Financial Advisor that focuses on commodities markets, futures and options brokerage, and helping individuals and families plan for retirement and their financial futures. Brady joined Jody at Strategic Trading Advisors in 2018 after college and supports the market research and brokerage sides of the business.