Quiet Friday After Volatile Week

A volatile but mostly lower week ended calmly with prices trading on both sides of unchanged as December option expiration forced traders to settle their positions, before finishing mixed. The early week rallies on confirmation of China’s bean purchases faded quickly after subsequent days morning export numbers from the USDA proved disappointing. With the USDA back open and trying to catch up on all of their backlog of reports, the market will get plenty of information, albeit week’s old, through the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week. Outside markets will also be closely watched as the US equity markets have been brutally volatile and nervous ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting.

News and Notes:

• A welcome stretch of dry and warm weather for southern Brail and northern Argentina and the monsoon season continuing as expected for the rest of Brazil, SA weather remains almost completely non-threatening with total SA bean yields on pace to again eclipse 8 BBU. Corn yields are also trending  to be strong and with their 2-3% planted acreage expansion, record crop potential remains intact heading into the key months of December (early corn pollination) and January (key bean reproductive stages). A weather threat will be needed for corn and bean prices to exceed recent highs.
• The daily January bean, December ’25 and December ’26 corn charts are on Page 2 and show the steep decline this week and the last-ditch effort for the markets to hold important technical support on Friday. Beans held the 20-DMA (blue line), Dec ’25 corn held the 50-DMA (green) while Dec ’26 is sinking the fastest but did hold the 200-DMA (red) after dropping to (but rallying from) the last level of technical support at the 100-DMA (pink). These charts do not look good and
• One key world political event next week will be negotiations to end the Russia/Ukraine war in Geneva. An end to war, which will likely force Ukraine to give up the disputed territory, would begin the process of “normal” production and shipping from the Black Sea region which would add additional pressure to US exports of corn and wheat.
• President Trump has lowered tariffs on Brazil and Australia’s exports of beef. Monday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected to show still historically low cattle on feed with no demand cuts. It is unclear how much beef could be imported from Brazil and the price impact it will have, but the fear of imports sent live cattle futures down $24 from the November high to low. Feeders took a bigger hit down $33. With inflation and high food costs becoming a major political issue with the voters, expect the administration to keep their focus on lowering food costs.
• Weekly Changes: Corn-4 3/4 (Dec ‘25), - 7 1/4 (Dec ‘26), Beans +1/2 (Jan ‘26), -3 (Nov ‘26), Wheat -5 1/2 (July ’26), Crude -189, Diesel -1484, Dow -908, US Dollar +114, Cattle -470, Feeder Cattle -2445, Hogs -70, Cotton -114, Milk -84 (15.15).

Thanksgiving week is usually a slower pace than most but with all the news and the recent dizzying 3-4% daily market moves, I am not counting on a calm week. With the Thursday holiday break, Monday’s Cattle on Feed Report and Friday’s 1/2-day trade with December futures first notice day, there will be plenty of ag market specific news to watch in addition to the increasing uncertainty in the world equity markets. After missing the Dec ’26 corn sale by 1-cent a few weeks ago, I am going to be very aggressive on selling any rallies we may see into year-end and any SA weather scare. The bean market may have shown its true colors late last week with the excitement of the Chinese trade deal fading quickly and the technical picture potentially breaking down entirely if next week posts weekly losses, the outlook is no longer bullish. Opening calls are 1-2 lower as last week’s late bearish momentum will need some bullish news for it to reverse on Monday. Have a great Sunday.