Relief Rally Reversed: Strait Re-Closure Sparks Fresh Volatility Across Markets

The week ended with a worldwide sigh of relief when announcements were made that an extended cease-fire and permanent re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz had been approved by Iran which sent US equity markets to new all-time highs. Crude oil fell by 13% to new 1-month lows before weekend positioning and profit taking closed out the week. Unfortunately, the re-opening appears to be short-lived as the Straits were closed by Iran again on Saturday after missiles hit two tankers. The wild swings in the Middle East will continue to buffet all markets. Corn and beans were initially lower following crude but showed impressive resilience to finish near unchanged as concern over the current cool and wet weather and slow northern Midwest planting progress is present in the market, but the bigger picture of ample sub-soil moisture rebuilding will be a bearish factor when the crops get planted.

News and Notes:

- US forecasts into the end of April remain fairly consistent that the Southern and Western Plains will remain in drought (winter wheat) while the NCB will remain wetter and cooler than normal but turning warmer and drier in the 7-10-day forecasts. SA and world weather remain non-issues.

- The new crop corn and bean charts are two of the four charts on Page 2 and show the extreme volatility so far in 2026 and the solid level of support in corn at the 50-DMA (green line) and 20-DMA (red line) in beans. The funds are still long, over 1 BBU each of corn and beans which will remain a concern if planting weather dries out or the Straits are able to stay longer. The other two charts are for diesel, which has followed every development in Iran and the S and P equity index chart that shows the massive rebound rally over the last two-weeks to push to new all-time highs.

- Argentina’s corn harvest is about 25% complete with consistent yields pointing to a record crop while Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is developing normally. If the US plants 96 MA or more, the world will have plenty of corn.

- Friday’s Cattle on Feed report numbers are being viewed as slightly bullish with lower than expected on feed and placed last quarter. Last week’s trade saw new all-time highs in both feeder and live cattle futures contracts before a late week technical selloff pushed mostly by a modestly weaker outlook for retail beef sales as gas prices begin cutting into consumers discretionary spending. Cattle inventory will remain tight and prices high as no rumors persist about re-opening the Mexican border for feeder cattle imports.

- Please take some time to listen to the latest edition of Helena’s FieldLink podcast where seed treatments and the markets are the topics of conversation.

- About a month ago a new prediction (gambling) company was allowed to add predictions on markets normally only accessed through the futures markets. Kalshi’s odds for tonight’s opening range for crude oil show a high tendency (70% or better) for crude futures to open at least $3 higher with a 63% chance of them opening $6 higher. While I am have no interest in supporting or trading Kalshi, it does give good insight into what can expect on these wild weekend developments.

- Weekly Changes: Corn + 7 3/4 (May ‘26), + 4 3/4 (Dec ‘26), Beans – 7 3/4 (May ‘26), - 1 1/4 (Nov ‘26), Wheat + 18 1/2 (July ’26), Crude - 699, Diesel - 2703, Dow + 1512, US Dollar - 541, Cattle - 185, Feeder Cattle - 707, Hogs -213, Cotton +361, Milk - 18 (16.85).

Friday’s excitement about the Straits of Hormuz re-opening faded quickly over the weekend as Iran says the Straits are closed as two ships were fired upon trying to sail through. There was no damage, but shipping traffic stopped which will mean Sunday night’s opening will add war premium back to the energy markets pulling the grains and soy complex higher. With the US northern Corn Belt wetter and cooler than needed to advance planting rapidly and the uncertainty in Iran, the markets should continue to see support next week. All the Sales Targets are On Hold after the selling spree in March, any late planting and/or Iran rallies should be used for catch up sales on ‘26 crop and start early ‘27 sales. Have a great Sunday.