September 23, 2025 Comment

Overnight momentum losses were erased through the morning trade as wheat made a new round of contract lows before end user demand and some profit taking were seen. Corn and beans remain comfortably range-bound with beans favoring $10.0-$10.20 while corn has settled in from $4.20-$4.25. Mexico was featured as a large buyer in a flash sales announcement this morning, but other demand news was absent. Midweek trade will likely be uninspiring as this week’s rain will slow early harvest across the Corn Belt.

News and Notes:

• Heavy rain is falling over Missouri and is expected to move across the river into the ECB later today. The rain may end up being too much too late, but the Ohio and Mississippi River water levels will be raised for fall harvest shipping needs. SA weather remains mostly non-threatening
• The December daily chart is on Page 2 and shows the grinding range bound trade the market has been in since early July. $4.20 has been traded 12 of the last 17 sessions and seems to be a comfortable resting spot for the trade. With limited news expected the remainder of the week and October option expiration on Friday, expect more choppy trade for the rest of the week.
• Hogs stampeded to new yearly and three-year highs in today’s trade and is only a small move from setting new 12-year highs. The cash index remains well supported at $100 and the weekly slaughter numbers are strong as more demand for pork is surfacing as cattle continues its historic rally.

Today’s bounces help to show that the market is not ready for a complete freefall as US corn has solid end user support under $4.20 while $10 seems to be at least psychological support for beans. Upcoming news days of interest are Friday’s October option expiration, and Tuesday’s end of the month and 3^rd quarter and the USDA quarterly stocks report. US stocks are expected to increase modestly with many worried the report will find more beans than expected.