- Corn 1 ¼ to 2 lower
- Soybeans 1 ¾ to 3 ¼ lower
- Wheat ¾ to 1 lower
- Basis Flat/Lower
- Live Cattle 155 lower (234.05)
- Lean Hogs 260 lower (88.13)
- Dow Jones 144 lower (46,493)
- Crude Oil 131 higher (64.24)
Fallout from Argentina’s elimination of their agriculture export tax continued today as reports showed China bought roughly 70 MBU from Argentina yesterday and may have booked another 18-20 MBU today. Beans did rally early as Treasury Sec Bessent had a conversation with Argentina’s President Melei about ending the tax holiday in exchange for US monetary support. The early rallies did meet farmer hedging as any rally in Nov bean above $10.20 and Dec corn over $4.25 are seen as selling opportunities. US weather will see drying and warm late September temperatures the rest of the month to advance harvest adding to basis pressure as the first 15-20% of the corn crop is delivered.
News and Notes:
- Rain in the ECB will be ending by the end of the week and give away to a drier trend to advance harvest in early October. US weather is a non-issue and SA weather continues to lean bearish.
- The December daily cattle chart is on Page 2 and shows the slowing bullishness of the trade. The market has not made a new contract/all-time high since August 27thand this week’s failed attempt top make new highs on the screw worm scare does make the chart look tired and possibly toppy while working to find a comfortable trading range. From the beginning of the 3rdquarter (July 1st), cattle are up $28 and next week’s end of the quarter could bring some profit taking. It is not a definite sell signal, but it deserves some caution considering the massive run cattle has been on for 3-years and that prices have more than tripled from the COVID low.
- The stomach-churning volatility in the meats was on full display today as hogs fell to near limit losses a day after multi-year highs while cattle fell back sharply today. The futures markets in both are not coordinated with the futures markets, so it will be interesting going into October if they meet in the middle.
The confusing crosscurrents of trade negotiations and international agricultural crisis management in the Trump administration is contributing more market news than the crop. Speaking of the crop, harvest continues to move slowly north with the fields hit by rust showing significant yield loss while unaffected fields are seeing record yields in most states. Basis is moving lower to only add to the price problem as harvest ramps up. Sell rallies.
Sales Targets
Corn
Beans
Wheat
- 2024 Crop Finished Finished Finished
- 100% Sold at $4.46 Avg 100% Sold at $11.13 Avg 100% Sold at $6.20 Avg
- 2025 Crop 10% at $4.50 – March ‘26 15% at $10.50 – Nov ‘25 20% at $5.40– Dec ‘25
- 50% Sold at $4.44 Avg* 75% Sold at $10.62 80% Sold at $6.45 Avg
- Current Price $4.41 $10.09 $5.20
- 2026 Crop 10% at $4.70 - Dec ‘26 10% at $10.95 – Nov ‘26 25% at $5.80– July ‘26
- 10% Sold at $4.75 15% Sold at $10.70 25% Sold at $6.45
- Current Price $4.62 $10.62 $5.61
%’s are total of expected yields. Bold Prices are Updated Sales Targets. * price includes trading
December Cattle – Daily
Today’s Market Closes — Rounded to the Nearest Cent
Corn
- December 4.24
- March ‘26 4.41
- July ‘26 4.56
- Dec ‘26 4.62
Beans
- November 10.09
- Jan ‘26 10.29
- July ‘26 10.69
- Nov ‘26 10.62
Wheat
- December 5.20
- March ‘26 5.38
- July ‘26 5.61
- Dec ‘26 5.92
Other Closes
- Dec Diesel 2.3444 +446
- US Dollar 97.505 +612
- Cash Cattle $245 Offer
- Feeder Cattle 357.80 -295
A Complete Overview of Current New Crop Market Conditions
Last Updated: 09/24/2025
Fundamentally
Technically
Short Term
Long Term
Volatility
Trade Rec
- Corn Bearish Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish Medium Sell Rallies
- Soybeans Bearish Neutral Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish High Sell Rallies
- Wheat Bearish Neut/Bullish Neutral Neutral Medium Sell Rallies
- Cattle Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish Neut/Bullish Medium Sell Rallies
- Hogs Bullish Neutral Neutral Neut/Bullish High Sell Rallies
- Diesel Bullish Neut/Bullish Neutral Neutral Medium None
- Denotes positive change
- Denotes negative change
Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. No market data or other information is warranted by Reliance Capital Markets II LLC as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC, or their respective subsidiaries, affiliates, officers or employees. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Strategic Trading Advisors is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets ll LLC.
About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.