Tariffs, Turnarounds, and a Market With No Footing

Another wild day of volatility and uncertainty started the week after Friday’s Supreme Court rejection of Trump’s tariff policy, which was closely followed by a new unilateral 10% then 15% tariff with a “warning” for any country who does not follow through on the tariff leveraged trade deals signed in recent months. The markets were initially lower, led by beans, but quickly reversed mid-morning for solid gains after the EPA’s submission of new RVO and SRE guidelines will be submitted this week. The shifting footing for all markets is clearly a diversion that is a factor in another day of steep equity losses and flight to the safety of US Treasuries and precious metals. Tuesday’s major news should be contained to what President Trump mentions about fighting food inflation in the State of the Union address, which does not seem to be consistent with his interest in helping US farmers.

News and Notes:

· Great weather remains the outlook for Brazil and Argentina for the next few weeks as the later crop matures in Argentina as harvest starts, while Brazil’s bean harvest and safrinha corn planting are ahead of pace and the fastest in years. Without weather problems in SA, upside is limited unless something develops later this year in the US.

· The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the slowing momentum and confusion-based volatility that has been around for weeks. While the chart reflects the news on trade and tariffs, the technical picture shows the market is losing some upward trajectory after an impressive run so far in 2026.

· Considerable confusion was caused after Sec Rollin’s announcement and press release on Friday about the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments. Early thoughts were that it was a new program (as had been rumored for months), but it was just an announcement about the existing program that was announced in late 2025. It is not clear (other than it is the USDA) why registration was re-opened for the FBA where registration was due last December. Apologies for any confusion this may have caused in this weekend's comment when it was thought this was an additional program. If you had certified acres and signed up in December, you should be good. If you did not sign up in December, please go to the USDAsiteregarding Friday’s announcement.

· Today’s sharp pullback in cattle and feeder prices was in response to news that President Trump plans to take aim at lowering beef prices and potentially give details in his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Another, just as important factor, is the meat packer's union at the JBS Plant in Colorado appears to be heading toward a strike with little pushback from JBS. Despite the record high cattle and retail level beef prices, JBS is losing $50-$100 a head and would be losing less money if the plant shuts down a for a while. The cattle industry is in as a confusing place as the rest of the ag markets.If you have cattle and want budget friendly ideas to set floors at these record prices in case cattle takes an ugly turn, please call us.

· Please listen to the latest Helena FieldLinkpodcast with insight on obtaining your spring seed needs and my market outlook. 

· The standing Sales Target for November 2026 beans was hit in today’s wild trade. This brings total sales to 55% with an average price of $11.01. Our bean Sales Target is On Hold. It is amazing to see the bean markets strength in the face of an 8 BBU+ SA harvest and plenty of uncertainty in what the EPA will submit to President Trump on the updated bio-fuel mandates.

There was little room to mention the potential of US military action against Iran but that also will figure into the general market sentiment this week as the only certainty in the daily news is uncertainty. While no one has much idea what the next twist in Commander Chaos’ policy will be, the easiest path toward higher prices is the EPA bio-fuel guideline suggestions come in larger than expected and add a boost to bean oil use for SAF and more financial motivation for expanding ethanol production and blending capacity. Continue to reward the rallies as what the market is doing and what the market should be doing are not consistent at this time.