Title: Quiet Trade, Subtle Signals: Waiting on the Next Spark

Another slow news day saw corn trade both sides of unchanged and close mixed with beans closing with modest gains. Wheat had a solid rally to lead the gains. Outside markets were mildly supportive as crude oil rallied to new monthly highs despite larger than expected gas inventories. The rest of the week is not expected to much different than today’s choppy session as ag specific news is not expected on Thursday and Friday.

News and Notes:

- No weather concerns are forecast for the next 2-weeks in Brazil or Argentina as Argentina’s crops head into the late stages of development in B+ shape while harvest is speeding along in Brazil for beans and planting for their safrinha corn crop. After a brutal 3-weeks of cold US weather, temperatures have moderated with seasonal to above average temperatures in the week ahead. The Drought Monitor for the Midwest still shows some areas of concern (N IL for sure) that need a wet finish to the winter to

- The daily chart for July wheat is on Page 2, and it shows the solid rally to take prices back to overhead trendline resistance. Our aggressive early sales have 50% of the crop sold nearly 60-cents over the current market, but if you are behind on sales and feel like your stand survived the winter so far, some sales are recommended to award the 30-cent rally so far in 2026.

- Live cattle prices jumped another $3 today to test recent highs and almost filled the gap from Monday’s gap lower opening. Cash prices this week are expected to be steady compared with last week in the mid-$240’s.

- A sizable 9 MBU corn sale was announced this morning to unknown destinations, but no bean sales were announced to China. Corn was not included in any of President Trump’s statements on China, but all sales are welcome and any increase in corn sales to China would continue to keep the USDA looking to increase their annual sales estimates. Thursday’s weekly export report is not expected to have any bullish surprises but should show another good week of corn sales.

- This week’s ethanol production numbers bounced back from the cold weather slowdown in late January. Crude oil continues to show strength based on ongoing Middle East tension which is helping blend margins. Corn used for ethanol remains key for supporting corn price, but the lip-service and hollow support given to the year-round E-15 proposal needs to become mandated for corn used for ethanol to take the next leg higher and push toward 6 BBU used annually.

- Farmers should see notification from the FSA in the coming weeks with the timeline for the Farmer Assistance Payments which should be made in the first half of March Rumors persist that another payment package will be coming in late summer. Stay tuned.

After Tuesday’s USDA non-event monthly report, it will be hard to find much dynamic news in this cycle. News and tweets from Washington are the most likely source, but the bean bulls need to see confirmation on a near-daily basis to justify the recent rally after President Trump’s call with Chairman Xi. Beans rally in the face of Brazil’s record bean harvest is impressive and unexpected. Normally bean harvest pressure selling is more acute in the first half of harvest, but so far it has not affected the bulls. My attention is on the end of February as first notice day for the March futures contracts for corn, beans and wheat will occur and likely drive many farmers holding grain to the sales window to finish raising cash for their spring expenses. The USDA Outlook Forum will also release their initial projections on US planted acreage and give a baseline for the early US supply numbers.