Too Many Headlines, Not Enough Certainty

Each event that exploded on the market today would be worthy of its own headline, so picking one is like picking your favorite child. The Supreme Court ruling against tariffs added an interesting twist to end the week while USDA Sec Rollins outlined another Farmer Bridge Payment program to close the annual USDA Outlook Forum and the world potentially heading toward another conflict in the Middle East in the next week was an overwhelming flood of major news events for the markets to digest. Despite the modest row crop changes, wheat pushed to new 7-month highs in an unexpected and hard to explain 73-cent rally in 2026. A chance for a relaxing exhale and time to get an overview of everything influencing our markets would be nice, but also very naïve as every market is in frenetic chaos.

News and Notes:

- Argentina will be well watered heading into the late stages of crop maturity while a perfect mix of rain and dry have set in on Brazil as bean harvest rolls along and safrinha corn planting moves quickly. The Black Sea wheat crop has been hit by some winterkill, but it is still too early to assess possible damage. The US has a warming trend forecast into early March for what could be an early planting start.

- The tariff battle took another crazy turn on Friday as the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump’s tariffs applied under IEEPA are illegal and must be dropped with refunds paid out to the small US businesses that filed the suit. President Trump then applied a flat 10% global tariff from the 1974 Trade Act after the market closed. The most affected ag market is beans, which fell sharply on the initial news, rallied back to unchanged but closed lower. Complete chaos and uncertainty are the only thing the tariffs and the Supreme Court accomplished.

- The first big news story on Friday was Ag Sec Rollins announcing the parameters a second $11 billion Farmer Bridge Payment at the Ag Outlook Forum. The particulars of her announcement are below and will require signing up again. This is a separate Farmer Bridge Payment program from the initial program announced in December that should be getting into your bank account soon.

- Friday’s Cattle on Feed was lost in Friday’s news storm but was slightly bullish on a low placement number. The bigger news is a planned JBS plant strike in Colorado sometime next week. The union wants more money, but JBS is losing money on every carcass, so a strike is likely. The last strike was initially bearish to cattle prices, as cash prices plummeted.

- Please listen to the latest Helena FieldLinkpodcast with insight on obtaining your spring seed needs and my market outlook.

- February begins the revenue-based insurance price discovery and after one week, the average price for December corn is $4.6017 with November beans at $11.0316.

- Weekly Changes: Corn – 4 1/4 (March ‘26), unchanged (Dec ‘26), Beans +4 3/4 (May ‘26), +1 1/2 (Nov ‘26), Wheat +30 1/2 (July ’26), Crude +373, Diesel +1778, Dow +105, US Dollar +910, Cattle -108, Feeder Cattle +188, Hogs +673, Cotton +92, Milk -4 (15.02).

Farmer Bridge Payments

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins today announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is opening the enrollment period for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, providing $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to row crop producers in response to temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs. The FBA enrollment period opens Feb. 23 and closes April 17, 2026. 

Pre-filled applications will be available online to producers with a Login.gov account who timely filed their 2025 crop acreage report for eligible commodities. Producers who have a Login.gov account can access and submit their pre-filled application from fsa.usda.gov/fba. Additionally, producers can also request their pre-filled FBA application from their FSA county office.

There is no such thing as a quiet Friday that eases you into the weekend when you have the unprecedented avalanche of events that occurred to end the week. The Supreme Court’s decision that the tariffs are illegal in their present form, Sec Rollins offering details on another round of farmer support payments and the increase of US military forces in the Middle East for a potential airstrike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure are enough to write multiple pages about each, but collectively they left traders dazed and confused at an even greater level than normal. The massive intra-day volatility in every market sector highlights the controlled chaos that the world is living with as finding any firm foundation for a long-term plan becomes harder each day. For now, focus on the opportunities in selling wheat as the market has exploded higher without a clear driver, which means this is the perfect type of rally to hedge. My weekend will be spent trying to put together a very flexible plan for the new landscape as nothing is set in stone so far this year. Have a great Sunday.