USDA February Crop Report Overview

Current Trade:        

Corn:   unchanged to 1 higher                   (3 cent range)                                 

Beans:  11 to 7 higher                             (18 cent range)                                 

Wheat: 1 to 2 lower                                 (7 cent range) 

First Glance: 

Corn              

25/26 US Corn Stocks:  2.127 BBU (2.227 BBU Estimate)       

25/26 World Corn Stocks:  289 MMT (290.48 MMT Estimate)                       

25/26 Brazil Corn Prod: 131 MMT (132.58 Estimate)                       

25/26 Argentina Corn Prod: 53 MMT (52.92 Estimate) 

Beans     

25/26 US Bean Stocks:  350 MBU (347 MBU Estimate)

25/26 World Bean Stocks:  125.5 MMT (125.3 MMT Estimate)

25/26 Brazil Bean Prod: 180 MMT (179.39 Estimate)

25/26 Argentina Bean Prod: 48.5 MMT (48.38 Estimate) 

Wheat     

25/26 US Wheat Stocks:  931 MBU (918 MBU Estimate)

25/26 World Wheat Stocks:  277.5 MMT (278.24 MMT Estimate)

Overview:

As promised, the February USDA update was a yawner with limited changes and limited market reactions after the release. The only real changes were in corn with modest cuts to US and world stocks with Brazil/Arg production unchanged from last month. The USDA did increase US corn exports by 100 MBU, which was expected but still helpful. The modest changes indicate the trade’s reaction and with no USDA flash bean sales to China this morning, the market has a static dull feel. 

This will be today’s only report as the landscape remains neutral to bearish seasonally as Brazil’s record large harvests are creeping into the world pipeline. Have a good afternoon.