USDA Final 2025 Yield and Stocks Overview

Current Trade:

Corn:   17 to 9 lower     ($4.29 to $4.69)  

Beans:  9 to 1 lower     ($10.53 to $10.71)

Wheat: 6 to 7 lower      ($5.11 to $5.35)

First Glance:

Corn :

USDA Yield:   186.5 BPA (184 Estimate – 186 Nov)

Total Crop: 17.021 BBU (16.552 Estimate – 16.752 Nov)

Harvested Area:  91.258 MA (89.975 Estimate – 90.047 Nov)

25/26 US Ending Stocks: 2.227 BBU (1.980 Estimate – 2.029 Nov)

25/26 World Stocks: 290.9 MMT (279.62 Estimate – 279.15 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 184 MMT (186 Estimate – 184 Nov)

Beans:  

USDA Yield:   53 BPA (52.7 Estimate – 53 Nov)

Total Crop: 4.262 BBU (4.229 Estimate – 4.253 Nov)

Harvested Area:  80.437 (80.28 Estimate – 80.31 Nov)

25/26 US Ending Stocks:  350 MBU (303 Estimate – 290 Nov)

25/26 World Stocks: 124.4 MMT (123.07 Estimate – 122.37 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 226.5 MMT (224.88 Estimate – 223.5 Nov)

Wheat:

25/26 US Ending Stocks:  926 MBU (896 Estimate – 901 Nov)

Winter Wheat Seedings: 32.990 MA (32.413 Estimate – 33.153 LY)

25/26 World Stocks: 278.3 MMT (275.95 Estimate – 274.87 Nov)

Overview

The worst fears of the bulls came true in today’s USDA report as the corn numbers were overwhelmingly bearish with yield coming in 2.5 BPA above expectations and an extra 1.3 MA were harvested as a result of less silage and a modest 100,000 acre increase to planted acreage. The bean numbers were not as bearish but bearish enough for beans to be pulled lower with corn with both trading to losses in the mid-teens minutes after the report was released. Wheat also saw negative increases in world stocks with an extra 500,000 acres of US wheat planted above expectations. Other supply and demand numbers were not adjusted enough to make the headlines although the USDA did make an upward adjustment to the total SA bean crop to move closer to the public and private estimates.

Today’s action wipes out last week’s rallies and positive technical support with Dec corn posting a new 3-month low ($4.53) and falling back under all technical moving support. Nov beans were able to hold (again) at the 200-DMA and did not take out the January 2^ndlow which does offer some support. The funds remain heavily long beans, and this should have given them enough of a scare to head to the exits, but so far, beans are holding up better.

I will continue to look through the report and the analysis of the numbers and provide more information in Tuesday’s Daily Comment, but for now, it is all about the choking US corn number, non-threatening SA weather, and the start of Brazil’s bean harvest in the weeks to come. This will be today’s only report, but I will be in the office if you have any questions.