USDA July Crop Report Overview

Current Trade:           

Corn:   8 to 9 higher              Dec futures: $4.62                                        

Beans:  11 to12 higher          Nov futures: $11.94                                   

Wheat: 20 to 24 higher         Sep futures: $6.42                                   

Crude: 100 lower                  Aug futures: $71.05

First Glance: 

Corn              

2026 US Corn Yield:  183 BPA (182.9 BPA Estimate)                       

2026 US Total Production:  15.995 BBU (15.975 BBU Estimate)       

25/26 US Corn Stocks:  2.020 BBU (2.073 BBU Estimate)                       

26/27 US Corn Stocks:  1.790 BBU (1.873 BBU Estimate)                       

26/27 World Corn Stocks:  275.3 MMT (278.85 MMT) 

• Tighter US and world balance sheets are forecast on accelerating demand as the USDA did not touch their trendline yield estimate of 183 BPA. These numbers add more confirmation that the end of June lows and sigh of relief rally after the acreage report are setting up for higher corn prices if US yields fall at all. A yield loss to 181 (which is what crop conditions and private models forecast) takes off another 150 MBU from both balance sheets. Wheats sharply higher trade on Russian war related shipping delays also a bonus. The grains are looking good.

Beans             

2026 US Bean Yield:  53 BPA (53 BPA Estimate)                       

2026 US Total Production:  4.475 (4.459 BBU Estimate)       

25/26 US Bean Stocks:  330 MBU 338 MBU Estimate)                       

26/27 US Bean Stocks:  310 MBU (332 MBU Estimate)                       

26/27 World Bean Stocks:  124.2 MMT (125.17 MMT Estimate) 

• The bean numbers are not particularly eventful except the 26/27 US stocks coming in 22 MBU below estimates. Demand again is the key driver of lower stocks as the USDA did not touch the 53 BPA yield estimate. China was confirmed in this morning’s daily export sale as a buyer of another 10 MBU being the total over 30 MBU for the week. If China honors their trade commitment, prices continue to have strong support on breaks with a re-test of the $12.14 highs probable on any US weather scare.

Wheat            

2026 US Wheat Production:  1.536 (1.521 BBU Estimate)       

26/27 US Wheat Stocks:  722 MBU (714 MBU Estimate)                       

26/27 World Wheat Stocks:  272.8 MMT (273.17 MMT Estimate)

• The wheat numbers were not changed enough to be compelling, but the weather destruction of the European crop and a story on a major Russian export problem has spiked prices to new 6-week highs. Corn will support wheat and wheat will support corn. The chart looks great on today’s breakout.

Overview: This report, like the June 30th Acreage report, is not outright bullish, but it does emphasize growing world demand and tightening domestic and world stocks of all three major crops. The wheat chart is most bullish for the technical traders, but the corn and bean charts continue to build a base from the recent lows. Any return to hot/dry forecasts for the Corn Belt in the next 6 weeks would ignite an even bigger rebound with beans targeting new contract highs, corn eyeing another run at $5 and wheat getting through US harvest pressure with $7 not an unreachable goal. As bad as June was for the markets, July is doing its best to rebuild the bull’s confidence. We are still recommending looking at some “courage call” strategies for both corn and beans. This will be this weekend’s only report. Have a great weekend.