USDA June Crop Report Overview

First Glance: 

Corn                 

25/26 US Corn Stocks:                     2.145 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate)                        

26/27 US Ending Stocks:                 1.960 BBU (1.947 BBU)                        

26/27 World Ending Stocks:            281.2 MMT (278.51 BBU)                       

25/26 Brazil/ARG Corn Prod:         199 MMT (196.8 MMT)

-          The only number that stands out is total SA corn production was pushed higher by roughly 80 MBU which went straight to world ending stocks while US numbers were as expected. Improved weekly corn export sales but a lack of any daily Chinese sales continues to weigh on the bulls. Although the Midwest continues to see rain, many areas of the Corn Belt are concerned about too much rain, yellowing corn and upcoming cool temperatures.

Beans       

25/26 US Bean Stocks:                     340 MBU (338 MBU Estimate)

26/27 US Ending Stocks:                  310 MBU (312 MBU)

26/27 World Ending Stocks:            124.9 MMT (125.28 MMT)

25/26 Brazil/ARG Bean Prod:          230 MMT (228.96 MMT) 

-          The domestic and world bean numbers were at expectations, but charts look bad and when early bean oil strength faded, so did the bean gains. Like corn, weekly sales were good, but China remains absent in the conversation of lifting tariffs or ramping up purchases. Bean talk does mention wet US and acreage shift from corn to beans, but that is not supporting corn.

Wheat       

25/26 US Wheat Stocks:                   935 MBU (942 MBU Estimate)                 

26/27 US Ending Stocks:                  744 MBU (765 MBU)

26/27 World Ending Stocks:             275.4 MMT (274.3 MMT)

All Wheat Production:                      1.543 BBU (1.555 BBU) 

-          Wheat had the only minor bullish numbers as US ending stocks tightened as the US crop continues to lose bushels in each new estimate.

Overview:

There was simply nothing in today’s report to be interesting, but I am surprised the corn and bean markets have faded by 3-5 cents since the release. Dec corn is making another 2026 low trade as the “rain makes grain” theory dominates a weak chart. The charts look bad for all three markets and are now following US weather and China demand news and ignoring any crude rally. When there is good US weather in June, rallies are hard to find. This will be today’s only report, so have a great afternoon.