USDA May Crop Report Overview May 12, 2026

First Glance: 

Corn              

2026 US Corn Yield:                 183 BPA (182.8 BPA Estimate)    

25/26 US Corn Stocks:              2.142 BBU (2.128 BBU Estimate)                       

25/26 World Corn Stocks:         296.95 MMT (296.33 MMT)                       

26/27 US Ending Stocks:          1.957 BBU (1.922 BBU)                      

26/27 World Ending Stocks:      277.54 MMT (288.48 BBU)                       

25/26 Brazil/ARG Corn Prod:     94 MMT (189.53 MMT) 

- The USDA and WASDE corn numbers were all in line with estimates except the 11 MMT (440 MBU) lower world ending stocks for 26/27 which, in addition to the runaway bull market in wheat, allowed corn to show strength despite the other neutral numbers. The only negative for corn was Brazil and Argentina’s total production was listed at 200 MBU above estimates. 

Beans             

2026 US Bean Yield:                   53 BPA (53 BPA Estimate)    

25/26 US Bean Stocks:                340 MBU (345 MBU Estimate)                       

25/26 World Bean Stocks:          125.13 MMT (125.27 MMT)    

26/27 US Ending Stocks:             310 MBU (361 MBU)    

26/27 World Ending Stocks:       124.78 MMT (126.08 MMT)    

25/26 Brazil/ARG Bean Prod:     228 MMT (228.65 MMT) 

- The red-hot US bean crush pace was reflected in the surprising 51 MBU lower total for US 26/27 ending stocks while all other numbers were in line with estimates. Bean oil is separately strong today on WTI crude rallying over $3.50 and back over $100. Beans will follow crude with the USDA report out of the way. 

Wheat            

25/26 US Wheat Stocks:            935 MBU (934 MBU Estimate)                       

25/26 World Wheat Stocks:      279.21 MMT (282.93 MMT)                       

26/27 US Ending Stocks:          762 MBU (820 MBU)    

26/27 World Ending Stocks:     275.04 MMT (280.55 MMT)    

All Wheat Production:             1.561 BBU (1.746 BBU) 

- Wheat is the bullish parade leader today as the USDA found the Plains drought, freeze damage and miserable crop conditions have decimated the winter wheat crop and estimated production 185 MBU below estimates and 239 MBU below last year. US and world wheat ending stocks were adjusted sharply lower on the US crop losses.

Overview:

Folding into today’s bullish USDA numbers are yesterday’s 3% drop in wheat conditions to a shocking 28% G/E and that was certainly factored into the USDA’s supportive total wheat crop size. Planting progress remains well above the 5YA with corn at 57% with bean planting at 49%. Although today’s report repeated the expectation for trend US corn and bean yields for ’26, it will be the June Stocks and Acreage report in 6-weeks and subsequent weather that meaningfully sets those yields. 

President Trump and a massive trade team entourage are leaving for China today with expectations that every hot button issue from Iran to Taiwan to semi-conductor chips to the trade imbalance will be covered. No pre-meeting good will bean purchases have been announced. The markets are pricing in both corn and bean purchases by China. 

President Trump announced that the cease-fire and peace talks are on life support with Iran as Iran will not give up their nuclear ambitions. If the meeting with China does not see China encourage Iran to drop the demand, expect an escalation when the trade team returns. 

Both of the ’26 and ’27 wheat Sales Targets were hit in the post-report rally to advance sales for ’26 and start ’27 at the new highs. Please see the updated Sales Targets below and make any wheat catch up sales at the market if you did not have any orders standing with your buyers. This will be today’s only report.